Wow, you make these stats come alive, excellent content writing skills! While reading the scenarios everything was playing out like theater in my mind.
Dave — that is absolutely the best thing i could hear. The cinematic framing is exactly what I'm trying to build — a lens you can hold in your mind, so the next move feels less like noise and more like a scene you're watching unfold. Glad it's landing. Thank you
Amazing. relative strength, and momentum along with BTC/XAU show that bitcoin / Crypto topped in Q4 2024 - Jan 2025. The final leg in may through July shows a lot of exhaustion, and little optimism and interest in the market, which also coincides with the rotation into equities / commodities. I made the mistake of holding and believing into a raft that sailed and in hindsight the sentiment and technicals display this. Apathy and interest in crypto is at lows and the time based capitulation that we are seeing now does indicate this. Perhaps the four year cycle plays out. it would be better than experiencing another dead cat bounce that I describe 2025 was
Do you believe the highest beta risk in crypto will have a final leg and respect the business cycle as it always has?
Sasha — I know that feeling, and I've been where you are. You read the outflows and the crypto obituaries and start talking yourself into it being over, just to stop the waiting. I get it. It doesn't necessarily mean you're wrong.
To your actual question — yes, I think the high-beta end still has a leg, and it tends to run last, not first. That's how the risk curve works: money moves from safe to risky in order, and the high-beta stuff is what gets bought *last* — at the top, when it's all that's left to chase. ETH is my tell, since it's never topped before BTC ('17, '21). If ETH runs, the high-beta complex usually runs behind it. So the order you're leaning on is real — your tier sits at the end of the move.
I won't sell it to you as 100%, though. Sometimes the last leg just doesn't come (Nikkei '89 — patient money left and that was that), though our Fed read says we're likely not in that setup. It's a fork, not a script: the leg runs if the thrust shows up with liquidity. And low flows and dead interest right now aren't proof it's over — more often that's what the lull before the last leg looks like.
Time's the hardest part to sit with. So I hold the thesis strongly, just not in a way that hurts me irreparably if we walk a different path. Sometimes it's not about being right immediately — just about still being around when it resolves.
Wow, you make these stats come alive, excellent content writing skills! While reading the scenarios everything was playing out like theater in my mind.
He did well imo
Dave — that is absolutely the best thing i could hear. The cinematic framing is exactly what I'm trying to build — a lens you can hold in your mind, so the next move feels less like noise and more like a scene you're watching unfold. Glad it's landing. Thank you
Amazing. relative strength, and momentum along with BTC/XAU show that bitcoin / Crypto topped in Q4 2024 - Jan 2025. The final leg in may through July shows a lot of exhaustion, and little optimism and interest in the market, which also coincides with the rotation into equities / commodities. I made the mistake of holding and believing into a raft that sailed and in hindsight the sentiment and technicals display this. Apathy and interest in crypto is at lows and the time based capitulation that we are seeing now does indicate this. Perhaps the four year cycle plays out. it would be better than experiencing another dead cat bounce that I describe 2025 was
Do you believe the highest beta risk in crypto will have a final leg and respect the business cycle as it always has?
Sasha — I know that feeling, and I've been where you are. You read the outflows and the crypto obituaries and start talking yourself into it being over, just to stop the waiting. I get it. It doesn't necessarily mean you're wrong.
To your actual question — yes, I think the high-beta end still has a leg, and it tends to run last, not first. That's how the risk curve works: money moves from safe to risky in order, and the high-beta stuff is what gets bought *last* — at the top, when it's all that's left to chase. ETH is my tell, since it's never topped before BTC ('17, '21). If ETH runs, the high-beta complex usually runs behind it. So the order you're leaning on is real — your tier sits at the end of the move.
I won't sell it to you as 100%, though. Sometimes the last leg just doesn't come (Nikkei '89 — patient money left and that was that), though our Fed read says we're likely not in that setup. It's a fork, not a script: the leg runs if the thrust shows up with liquidity. And low flows and dead interest right now aren't proof it's over — more often that's what the lull before the last leg looks like.
Time's the hardest part to sit with. So I hold the thesis strongly, just not in a way that hurts me irreparably if we walk a different path. Sometimes it's not about being right immediately — just about still being around when it resolves.